Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-gtxcr Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-23T07:23:14.882Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Who Surfs, Who Manipulates? The Determinants of Opportunistic Election Timing and Electorally Motivated Economic Intervention

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 April 2005

MARK ANDREAS KAYSER
MARK ANDREAS KAYSER
Affiliation:
University of Rochester and University of Oxford
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

In this paper, I develop a career concerns model of government policy choice within a dynamic optimal stopping framework to predict the degree of surfing (opportunistic timing) and manipulation (politically motivated economic intervention) under alternate institutional structures. Among other results, I find that the likelihood of opportunistic elections rises with exogenous economic performance, with longer maximum term lengths, with future electoral uncertainty, and with economic volatility but diminishes in the value of office-holding; manipulation increases with the maximum term length and with the value of office-holding but decreases with exogenous economic performance and with economic volatility. The model suggests that single-party governments should be highly opportunistic in calling elections and that countries that allow opportunistic election timing should experience less economically distortionary political intervention than their fixed-timing counterparts.

Type
ARTICLES
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 99 , Issue 1 , February 2005 , pp. 17 - 27
Copyright
© 2005 by the American Political Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Achen Christopher H., and Larry M. Bartels. 2002. “Blind Retrospection: Electoral Responses to Drought, Flu, and Shark Attacks.” Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston.
Alesina Alberto, Gerald Cohen, and Nouriel Roubini. 1992. “Macroeconomic Policy and Elections in OECD Democracies.” In Political Economy, Growth, and Business Cycles, ed., A. Cukierman, Z. Hercowitz, and L. Leiderman. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Alesina Alberto, and Nouriel Roubini with Gerald Cohen. 1997. Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Balke Nathan S. 1990. “The Rational Timing of Parliamentary Elections.” Public Choice 65 (June): 201– 16.Google Scholar
Butler David. [1989] 1995. British General Elections Since 1945. Oxford: Blackwell.
Butler David, and Dennis Kavanagh. The British General Elections of 1983. New York: St. Martin's Press. (Also see Butler volumes on previous and subsequent British general elections.)
Cargill Thomas F., and Michael M. Hutchinson. 1991. “Political Business Cycles with Endogenous Election Timing: Evidence from Japan.” Review of Economics and Statistics 73 (November): 733– 39.Google Scholar
Chappell D., and D. A. Peel. 1979. “On the Political Theory of the Business Cycle.” Economics Letters 2 (4): 327– 32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chowdhurry Abdur R. 1993. “Political Surfing over Economic Waves: Parliamentary Election Timing in India.” American Journal of Political Science 37 (November): 1100– 18.Google Scholar
Clark William R., and Mark Hallerberg. 2000. “Mobile Capital, Domestic Institutions, and Electorally Induced Monetary and Fiscal Policy.” American Political Science Review 94 (June): 323– 46.Google Scholar
Crossman Richard. 1979. The Crossman Diaries: Selections from the Diaries of a Cabinet Minister 1964–1970, ed. Anthony Howard, London: Magnum Books.
Cukierman Alex, and Allan Meltzer. 1986. “A Positive Theory of Discretionary Policy, the Cost of Democratic Government, and the Benefits of a Constitution.” Economic Inquiry 24 (July): 367– 88.Google Scholar
Dewatripont M., I. Jewitt, and J. Tirole. 1999a. “The Economics of Career Concerns. Part I: Comparing Information Structures.” Review of Economic Studies 66 (January): 183– 98.Google Scholar
Dewatripont M., I. Jewitt, and J. Tirole. 1999b. “The Economics of Career Concerns. Part II: Application to Missions and Accountability of Government Agencies.” Review of Economic Studies 66 (January): 199– 217.Google Scholar
Diermeier Daniel, and Randolph T. Stevenson. 2000. “Cabinet Terminations and Critical Events.” American Political Science Review 94 (September): 627– 40.Google Scholar
Drazen Allan. 2000. Political Economy in Macroeconomics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Eckstein Zvi, and Kenneth I. Wolpin. 1989. “The Specification and Estimation of Dynamic Stochastic Discrete Choice Models: A Survey.” Journal of Human Resources 24 (4): 562– 98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gonzalez Maria de los Angeles. 1999. On Elections, Democracy and Macroeconomic Policy. Dissertation. Princeton University.
Grofman Bernard, and Peter Van Roozendaal. 1994. “Toward a Theoretical Explanation of Premature Cabinet Termination.” European Journal of Political Research 26 (2): 155– 70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grofman Bernard, and Peter Van Roozendaal. 1997. “Modelling Cabinet Durability and Termination.” British Journal of Political Science 27 (3): 419– 51.Google Scholar
Hansen Susan B. 1999. “Life Is Not Fair: Governors' Job Performance Ratings and State Economies.” Political Research Quarterly 52 (March): 167– 88.Google Scholar
Heckelman J. C., and Hakan Berument. 1998. “Political Business Cycles and Endogenous Elections.” Southern Economic Journal 64 (April): 987– 1000.Google Scholar
Holmström B. 1982. “Managerial Incentive Problems—A Dynamic Perspective.” Reprinted in 1999 in Review of Economic Studies 66 (January): 169– 82.Google Scholar
Inoguchi Takashi. 1979. “Political Surfing over Economic Waves: A Simple Model of the Japanese Political Economic System.” Unpublished manuscript.
Ito Takatoshi. 1990. “The Timing of Elections and Political Business Cycles in Japan.” Journal of Asian Economics 1 (1): 135– 56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ito Takatoshi, and Jin Hyuk Park. 1988. “Political Business Cycles in the Parliamentary System.” Economics Letters 27 (3): 233– 38.Google Scholar
Keane Michael P., and Kenneth I. Wolpin. 1994. “The Solution and Estimation of Discrete-Choice Dynamic-Programming Models by Simulation and Interpolation: Monte Carlo Evidence.” Review of Economics and Statistics 76 (4): 648– 72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kreps David M. 1990. A Course in Microeconomic Theory. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Kydland Finn E., and Edward C. Prescott. 1980. “A Competitive Theory of Fluctuations and the Feasibility of Stabilization Policy.” In Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, ed. Stanley Fisher. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Kydland Finn E., and Edward C. Prescott. 1982. “Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations.” Econometrica 50 (6): 1345– 70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck Michael. [1988] 1990. Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Lewis-Beck Michael S., and Mary Stegmaier. 2000. “Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes.” Annual Review of Political Science 3: 183– 219.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Litterman Robert B., and Laurence Weiss. 1989. “Money, Real Interest Rates, and Output: A Reinterpretation of Postwar U.S. Data.” Econometrica 53 (1): 129– 56.Google Scholar
Lucas Robert E. Jr. 1972. “Expectations and the Neutrality of Money.” Journal of Economic Theory 4 (2): 103– 24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lupia Arthur, and Kaare Strom. 1995. “Coalition Termination and the Strategic Timing of Elections.” American Political Science Review 89 (3): 648– 65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McCallum Bennett T. 1999. “Recent Developments in Monetary Policy Analysis: The Roles of Theory and Evidence.” NBER Working Paper 7088.
Nordhaus William D. 1975. “The Political Business Cycle.” Review of Economic Studies 42 (2): 169– 90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Palmer Harvey D., and Guy D. Whitten. 2000. “Government Competence, Economic Performance and Endogenous Election Dates.” Electoral Studies 19 (June): 413– 26.Google Scholar
Peltzman Sam. 1992. “Voters as Fiscal Conservatives.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 107 (May): 327– 61.Google Scholar
Persson Torsten, and Guido Tabellini. 1990. Macroeconomic Policy, Credibility and Politics. London: Harwood Academy 78– 98.
Persson Torsten, and Guido Tabellini. 2000. Political Economics: Explaining Economic Policy. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Reid B. G. 1998. “Endogenous Elections, Electoral Budget Cycles and Canadian Provincial Elections.” Public Choice 97 (1–2): 35– 48.Google Scholar
Rogoff Kenneth. 1990. “Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles.” American Economic Review 80 (1): 21– 36.Google Scholar
Rogoff Kenneth, and Anne Sibert. 1988. “Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles.” Review of Economic Studies 55 (1): 1– 16.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roper Steven D., and Christopher Andrews. 2002. “Timing an Election: The Impact on the Party in Government.” American Review of Politics 23 (Winter): 305– 18.Google Scholar
Schuknecht Ludger. 1996. “Political Business Cycles and Fiscal Discipline and Fiscal Policies in Developing Countries.” Kyklos 49 (2): 155– 70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith Alastair. 1996. “Endogenous Election Timing in Majoritarian Parliamentary Systems.” Economics and Politics 8 (2): 85– 110.Google Scholar
Smith Alastair. 2003. “Election Timing in Majoritarian Parliaments.” British Journal of Political Science 33 (3): 397– 418.Google Scholar
Sundaram Rangarajan K. [1996] 1999. A First Course in Optimization Theory. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Suzuki Motoshi. 1992. “Political Business Cycles in the Public Mind.” American Political Science Review 86 (December): 989– 96.Google Scholar
Terrones Marco Emilio. 1989. “Macroeconomic Policy Cycles Under Alternative Electoral Systems.” Research Report 8905. Department of Economics, University of Western Ontario.
Warwick Paul. 1994. Government Survival in Parliamentary Democracies. New York: Cambridge University Press.