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To the Editor: Spatial incidence of dengue infections in Queensland, Australia

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 June 2012

SCOTT A. RITCHIE
Affiliation:
Professor, School of Public Health, Tropical Medicine and Rehabilitation Sciences, James Cook University, Cairns
JEFFREY N. HANNA*
Affiliation:
Associate Professor, School of Public Health, Tropical Medicine and Rehabilitation Sciences, James Cook University, Cairns.
CHRISTINE E. SELVEY
Affiliation:
Senior Director, Communicable Diseases Branch, Queensland Health, Brisbane
RICHARD C. RUSSELL
Affiliation:
Professor of Medical Entomology, Sydney Medical School, University of Sydney Director, Department of Medical Entomology, CIDM and SEIB, Westmead Hospital, Sydney
*
Author for correspondence: Professor J. N. Hanna School of Public Health, Tropical Medicine and Rehabilitation Sciences, James Cook University, Cairns. (Email: jeffrey.hanna@jcu.edu.au)
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Abstract

Type
Correspondence
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2012

The paper by Hu et al. on the spatial incidence of dengue infections in Queensland, Australia [Reference Hu1], has a serious, indeed fatal, flaw. There has not been any recognized locally acquired dengue in Queensland south of the city of Townsville (in the north of the state) since the mid-1950s when dengue transmission occurred in Rockhampton [Reference Kay2, Reference Hanna and Ritchie3]. Therefore, the maps (Figures 3–5) in the paper that indicate dengue incidence, inferring local transmission of dengue south of Townsville, are not only quite incorrect but also misleading. Unfortunately this misleading inference has already been cited in an Australian Government report on the likely impact of climate change in Australia [Reference Hughes and McMichael4], and consequently that report should be revised.

The error has occurred because Hu et al. have not carefully checked the data supplied to them by Queensland Health. A travel history is obtained for each notification of dengue in Queensland so that a determination on the place of acquisition can be made. The dataset supplied by Queensland Health contained numbers of dengue cases ‘acquired locally and overseas’ [Reference Hu1]. However, Hu et al. ignored this information and failed to either separate locally acquired cases from imported cases or to determine where the locally acquired cases were actually acquired, and included all cases to estimate local incidences based on residential postcodes. This failing has led to the quite erroneous conclusion that ‘dengue transmission had already begun to extend south-easternwards in Queensland between 1993 and 2004’ [Reference Hu1]; it hadn't, and indeed still has not.

Declaration of Interest

None.

References

1.Hu, W, et al. Spatial analysis of notified dengue fever infections. Epidemiology and Infection 2011; 139: 391399.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
2.Kay, BH, et al. Dengue fever: reappearance in northern Queensland after 26 years. Medical Journal of Australia 1984; 140: 264268.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
3.Hanna, JN, Ritchie, SA. Outbreaks of dengue in north Queensland, 1990–2008. Communicable Diseases Intelligence 2009; 33: 3233. [An updated version of the Table is available upon request.]Google ScholarPubMed
4.Hughes, L.McMichael, T (Climate Commission). The critical decade: climate change and health. Commonwealth of Australia (Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency), 2011, pp. 1921 (http://climatecommission.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/111129_FINAL-FOR-WEB.pdf). Accessed 30 January 2012.Google Scholar